Turkey as a Middle Power and the G20 Process in 2015

YE Yu,  Zha Xiaogang   2017-05-05 13:49:19

The 10th G20 Summit took place on Nov 15-16 in the very sunny Antalya of Turkey located at the Northeast of the Mediterranean Sea. The world economy and the topics for the G20 Leaders are not that lovely, however. The G20 is further expanding its attention to long-term issues. Both growth and inclusiveness are prioritized, reflecting the imbedded double traps of efficiency and equality the world economy is facing. The abominable terrorist attacks in Paris that shocked the world one day before the opening of the summit turned out to have seriously distracted the leaders’ attention. This was not surprising and only strengthened our belief about the increasing linkage between security and world development.

The G20 does not have formal institutions and relies heavily on the host country for its agenda-setting and proceedings. What footprints has Turkey left for dealing with the common challenges under this year’s G20? Let’s start from the special identity of Turkey in the G20. Most prominently, it is a member of the MIKTA, the informal group of middle powers proposed by Korea in 2013 including as well Mexico, Indonesia and Australia. The term of “middle powers” has never been clearly defined politically or economically, but roughly refers to the rest of the G20 members other than developed economies and BRICS countries. This group of economies can play a unique, active role in strengthening the G20 communication as the North and the South both compete for and avoid to take global leadership. Looking at Turkey more specifically, it does exhibit strong features crossing different groups. Economically, as a member of the OECD and an emerging economy suffering multiple challenges of large exchange rate fluctuations, weak growth and increasing social inequality, Turkey’s position crosses both the South and the North, similar to its geographic location crossing Asia and Europe. Culturally Turkey is an Islamic country, which is also characteristic of crossing the East and the West. Together with Indonesia and Saudi Arabia, Turkey contributes to the cultural diversity of the G20. Lastly but not the least, the domestic election and leadership transition in Turkey increased many uncertainties of this year’s G20 organization.

How have these features of Turkey affected this year’s G20 process? Generally it is fair to say that due to its domestic economic and political challenges this year, Turkey’s leadership was not able to concentrate on the G20 preparation as much as its precedents Korea or Australia, the two other members of MIKTA. But Turkey does have left its imprints in the following aspects of “3Is”. Firstly, inclusiveness was mainstreamed into all major issues’ discussions, reflecting concerns about the interests of developing countries and weak groups. The G20 endorsed the establishment of the World SME Forum and launching of the “Women 20 (W20)” following the initiative by Ms Susan Harris-Rimmer of Australia National University and Ms Paola Subacchi of the Chatham House last year. This is a measure to renew the target the Brisbane G20 Summit announced that the employment rate gap between man and women should be reduced by 25% by 2025. Having dialogues with least developed countries and improving energy access of African continent were also prominent examples this year’s G20 efforts about inclusiveness.

Secondly, for the growth agenda, infrastructure investment continued to be one of the major measures for this year’s G20 to stimulate both demand and supply. As an Asia-Euro state, Turkey has been paying close attention to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and would like the G20 to discuss it under the infrastructure agenda. The Think 20 clearly conveyed this message while the official G20 did not formally mention it. The Next year’s G20 in China can take advantage of Turkey’s support on this and better align its BRI with the G20’s global agenda. For the key issue of long-term financing mobilization, Turkey led the G20 to discuss the role of Islamic financing for the first time. Turkey tends to be more open in pushing for secularization of Islamic financing while Saudi Arabia might be more conservative on this issue.

Thirdly, about the implementation, Turkey has done valuable jobs in furthering the past G20 commitments and, more meaningfully, in consolidating the G20 accountability framework. The Antalya Summit approved the Antalya Accountability Assessment framework as a soft peer review mechanism among the G20 members for their commitments. According to the analysis of IMF, OECD and the World Bank, the G20 members have fulfilled more than one third of the collective 2% additional growth target so far. Turkey also initiated discussions about the implementation of the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda. By saying this, the growth potential and its realization will rely more on the long term economic fundamentals rather than short term policy incentives. We need pay more attention to the supply side factors through structural reform.