A Breakthrough Point in Iran Nuclear Talk after Negotiations in the Decade

  2013/11/29 source：

Since 2003 when Iran nuclear issue was raised, western countries have negotiated with Iran for the decade. Although both parties had several rounds of negotiation, they all failed. Western countries especially the United States, pressured Iran to change its position in the nuclear issue by increasing sanctions even war threat. Iran took firmer stance, thus the war risk was imminent. During the eight years of former Iranian president Ahmadinejad, nuclear talk was a deadlock. US-Iran relation was also at the bottom.

In the past decade the deadlock of Iran nuclear talks are related to US-Iran relations. After Iran hostage crisis, US-Iran relations turned worse. The United States aimed to throw down the Iran regime, thus the Iran nuclear issue became the card against Iran. During these years, the US viewed completely abandoning the Uranium concentrate activities as a condition to improve relations. Iran’s condition was that the US changed its hostile attitude toward Iran. Since both sides lacked of mutual trust, none of them took first step. The US tried to pressure Iran on nuclear programs, but Iran played a game of cat and mouse.

In Iranian perspectives, peaceful use of nuclear power is Iran’s lawful right. Acquiring nuclear technology is not only a symbol of Iran’s power in the region, but also an effective measure to counter US pressure. Although different parties in Iran hold different opinion on how to deal with international society on nuclear issues, enhancing Iran’s national profile and safeguarding national security is common request. The reason why Iran did not make compromise in these years is that Iranians did not trust the United States. They thought that unless the US changed its negative view toward Iran, Iran’s unilateral compromise would not take effect.

Notably European countries such as UK, France, Germany and China, Russia have made great efforts on this issue these years. EU offered favorable conditions to Iran, but Iran rejected the deal. China and Russia also brought some suggestions, but Iran did not accept. Iran thought the attitude of the US is the key. The most concern for Iran is its stability and national security. Major threat to Iran’s security is the United States. The US claimed that it would not give Iran security guarantee as an exchange for stopping Iran’s Uranium enrichment activities. Obviously it increased Iran’s concern on security. It also made EU proposal failed because no country could provide security guarantee to Iran.

In the past decade the US policy is not unchangeable. Although in the United State hawk voices including military attack never end, the US changed its position from rejecting three countries’ talk with Iran to gradually accepting and finally the US joined other five countries’ talk on Iran nuclear issues. US unilateralism is diminishing. Situation in the Middle East has changed a lot in recent years. US may change its policy as well. Former US policy toward the Middle East and Iran nuclear issue was restrained by international and domestic factors. The US has to move its strategic focus from the Middle East to Asia Pacific. Meanwhile conservative policy by Ahmadinejad administration also faced great pressures not only domestically but also internationally. US sanctions harmed Iran’s economy and left a negative impact on Iranians’ life. There were different voices towards Iran’s tough stance on nuclear issue and relations with western countries. As a result, Rouhani won the presidential election among many conservative candidates.

After Rouhani took power in August, he clearly expressed the willingness to improve relations with the US, especially resuming nuclear talks. Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, also implicitly support Rouhani’s position. He said that Iran would show hero-like flexibility when dealing with western countries such as the US. Sadeq Zibakalam, a professor of Tehran University, says that difference between Rouhani and his predecessor on nuclear issue is that Ahmadinejad pushed the nuclear plan at all costs but Rouhani thinks that Iran should not pay too much for nuclear plan. Rouhani will balance the relations among nuclear plan and diplomacy, economy and well-being of the people.

Iran’s change quickly won the positive feedback from the US. US President Obama called Rouhani that he wanted to develop more positive relations with Iran when Iran President Rouhani came to New York for the UN General Assembly. At that time Obama said if Iran gave up its “ clenched fist” defiance of the United States, he would like to talk. But there was no favorable environment in Iran that time for improving relations with the US. Although in the elite circle there are some different voices, under the leadership of conservative faction, Iran’s public opinion did not trust the US. In the US hawks also held hostility toward Iran.

Now it’s the first time in the decade for a breakthrough on Iran’s nuclear issues. US-Iran relations also meet the first possibility of improvement in 30 years. Facing such great change, both sides and relevant countries do not have the mental preparation. Hawks in both countries and countries which keep hostile view on Iran react sharply. They are preparing the response.

Thus both Rouhani and Obama have to find a balance between current policy and dealing with domestic hawks.

Currently Iran nuclear talks and US-Iran relations are at a crossroads. Although it might exists backslide, the positive trend is clear. The US has already shifted its focus from the Middle East to Asia Pacific. Thus it does not want to put more resources in the Middle East. The goal of current US policy is to stabilize the region in order to ensure the strategic reshuffle. On the other hand, after regime changes in many countries in the Middle East, situation was worse than before for the US. So the US actually gives up the attempt to change Iran’s regime. Additionally the US also does not want Sunni countries such as Saudi Arabia diminish the Shiite in the region. Since the US determined to break the deadlock of Iran nuclear talks and relations toward Iran, the trend will not be changed even facing distractions.