Social Divisions Behind the Political Rivalry in the Middle East

  2013/8/22 source：

The ouster of Mohamed Morsi by the military once again drew the world’s attention to the turbulent Egypt, the country that has been a focus of the Arab Spring ever since the beginning of 2011. It grabs the world’s eyes from Syria to reconcentrate their attention on this country as the flashing point of the upheavals in North Africa and the Middle East. The deteriorating situation and the escalating conflicts between Morsi’s supporters and opponents make us feel the harshness of a “Egyptian Summer”. The Arab Spring began with the people’s strong resentment against a rigid political system and a stagnant economy. But after two and a half years, it seems everything has come to the starting point. Egypt was once regarded as a hopeful state which had emerged from its first transformational period and turned into a post-reform country. The status quo just proves that was a far too optimistic view. With growing ideological splits, this country is far from any prospect of reconciliation. Behind the chaos and fury in Tahrir Square are deep-rooted social divisions—the greatest threats and challenges hanging over regional countries, societies, and their people.      
   
Although the West and many reformists in the Middle East enthusiastically advocated and expected for a Middle Eastern constitutional democracy, the reality tells that such expectations are misplaced against the current political and social background in the Middle East. People who went to the streets in the Arab world calling for constitutional democracy were never the majority of the protesters. It is interesting to see that the Muslim Brotherhood and its Freedom and Justice Party were the biggest winners of the 2011 revolution, and won the subsequent parliamentary and presidential elections, yet the former was not the initiator of protests. In other words, whether it is pro-West liberals or sectarian factions trying to strengthen Islamization of Egyptian society, though both had their own political agendas and made full use of the political opportunities created by the extensive dissatisfaction of the mass with the status quo to advance their own cause, neither had played the role of a political pillar in guiding people’s strong demand for reform in the right direction of nation-building. In this sense, the Egyptian revolution is neither a revolution nor a social reform, because there is no progressive advancement at all. The successor repeatedly starts from scratch after the predecessor is toppled.     
  
The ouster of Morsi by the military has far-reaching impacts on Egyptian and even the Middle Eastern political landscape. The biggest challenge behind political splits and rivalry is the widening social divisions. In the past, street politics was one of the most distinctive features in Arab politics, a manifestation of the gap existing between the government and the civilians. But now, in the absence of an effective political order, a triangular rivalry is taking shape in the Middle East. At one point is the military, a traditional political force which hides behind the stage but still wields enormous power. As some Middle East watchers have commented, reviewing the outcomes of the Arab Spring, the most surprising fact is that there are few prominent political figures who really step down. At the second point is the Islamic force whose rise depends on its promise of delivering more social services. They claim to better represent low-class or laboring people. At the third point is the West-endorsed pro-democratic force, among whom many are West-trained elites and youths. Take a trip around Cairo, it is not difficult at all to identify the Muslim Brotherhood proponents and its opposers, because their respective rally places are so clearly demarcated, a sign of the society’s deep divisions. Whoever grabs the power will be dragged into a legitimacy deficit. Egypt is in urgent need of a political consensus and an inclusive political framework that incorporates every political force. The biggest threat to the Egyptian Summer is that all factions are striving to further enlarge and consolidate their social basis and political identification. And the more they do so, the more incompatible their ideologies and discourse will become, the farther they will get from national reconciliation, and the wider the gap between the people’s desire and the political top-down design, forming a vicious circle in which the opposition and the opposition of the opposition drain the nation of its resources and strengths. This might be the root cause of the Egyptian turmoil and the Middle East upheaval.