Sanction Will Complicate the Iranian Nuclear Issue

  2010/6/10 source：

May 17, Iran, Brazil, and Turkey signed an agreement on nuclear fuel swap, whose core contents were basically consistent with the requirements in the nuclear fuel swap initiated by the International Atomic Energy Agency last year. However, the United States and other Western countries seem not appreciate the overdue deal. Almost at the same time when the deal was signed, the United States urged the UN Security Council’s five permanent members to reach a consensus on a resolution of sanctioning Iran. This U.S. policy is not conducive to solving the Iranian nuclear issue, and it will make the issue more complex.

The fundamental reason why the Iranian nuclear issue is longunsolved is Iran’s international identity. Iran identifies itself as the challenger of current international system, which could be certified by Iran’s concrete foreign policy. The reason for this is complex; it has something to do with the unrealistic ideal of pursuing justice in Iran’s strategic culture; it is also influenced by the United States. Ever since the Islamic revolution in Iran, the United States has declined to recognize the Islamic regime in Iran or Iran’s position as a regional big power, in fact ruling Iran out of the international system.

The Obama administration failed to make a correct assessment of the situation to reward or encourage Iran’s compromise; instead, it continues to push forward sanctions on Iran. It seems certain that the Obama administration, after pushing domestic health care reform and financial reform, especially facing the mid-term election, will pursue a tough Iran policy in return for domestic support.

However, the aggressive attitude of the United States undoubtedly strengthens Iran’s mistrust of the United States; it also sends a fairly negative message to the Iranian public and policymakers: compromise cannot save the weak in the international politics. If the United States did succeed in passing the resolution of sanction, Iran could possibly make the nuclear fuel swap deal worthless, and even take a tougher position in the following negotiations.

Although it is still possible that the United States will unilaterally do or unite EU to sanction Iran outside of the UN system, but after the setbacks in Afghanistan and Iran, the United States no longer has the capability to start another war against Iran. On the other hand, although Iran is the challenger of the current international system, it clearly does not want to isolate itself outside of the system. Therefore, negotiation will still be Iran’s top choice, and these negotiations will still be accompanied by sanctions or threat of sanctions by the United States and other countries.