Stirring the Sea: A Wavering US on the Contested Archipelago

  2011/8/4 source：

Echoing the last year ASEAN Region Forum (ARF) meeting in Hanoi, where US and Chinese top diplomats traded fire over the South China Sea disputes, bad news come uninvited yet not unexpected out of the region in the last weeks.

On May 29, the state-owned oil and gas monopoly, PetroVietnam, accused China had sabotaged its oil exploration vessel days before by cutting the ship’s seismic cables, which lie 120 nautical miles off the Vietnamese coast, “totally within the exclusive economic zone and continental shelf of Vietnam”, according to PetroVietnam. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman in Hanoi later asserted “the Vietnamese navy will do everything necessary to firmly protect peace and the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity”.

The situation has fallen into a vicious circle ever since. Incited nationalists protested before Chinese embassy or consulate in Vietnam’s capital and in Ho Chi Ming city on consecutive weekends. From the 13th of June, a live-fire Vietnam People’s Army (VPA) offshore exercise has put on near Quang Nam province, despite understandings between Chinese defense minister and his Vietnamese counterpart with the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue less than 10 days before.

Coupled with Hanoi’s high profile, another claimant on the Spratlys, the Philippines, flared tensions by summoning Chinese embassy’s charge d’affaires more than one time within a week, and protested “six or seven” incursions in the last few months by Chinese vessels and construction activity in disputed waters. Furthermore, the Philippines navy announced on June 15 it has removed “foreign marker posts” placed on reefs and banks it says are part of its territory amid the contested South China Sea islands. Claimed unidentified, the navy hinted the posts erected by the Chinese.

The overheating development around the South China Sea has reached a hotter extent that both Vietnam and the Philippines call on US intervention publicly. The Vietnam’s Foreign Ministry said it would “welcome” efforts by the US and other nations to help resolve the disputes, inconsistent with its Defense Minister’s remark in talk with his Chinese counterpart Liang Guanglie in Singapore that no third country should be allowed to interfere in efforts resolving their differences over the South China Sea or use the issue to harm the bilateral relations. The Philippine Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin echoed the Vietnamese foreign statement with resonance: “The US presence is a deterrence to any unlawful activity in the South China Sea”, and President Aquino III culminated the appeal by saying “Perhaps the presence of our treaty partner, which is the United States of America, ensures that all of us will have freedom of navigation, will conform to international law”.

The allegations pushed the US into a delicate position, where different voices had come out. During a speech at a renewable energy forum in Manila, US Ambassador to the Philippines Harry Thomas indicated his standing by the Filipino side: “The Philippines and the United States are strategic treaty allies. We are partners. We will continue to consult and work with each other on all issues including the South China Sea and Spratly Islands.” Senator Jim Webb (D-VA), Chairman of Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs, also introduced a congressional condemnation against “China’s use of force” and pushed for continued operations by US forces to defend freedom of navigation to “back up those words with substantive action” when Vietnam and other countries are watching.

The second school, mainly the people with the Obama administration in Washington, speaks in a much moderate tone. Kurt Campbell, Assistant Secretary of State on East Asian affairs, responded in a dismissive way when asked in Kuala Lumpur if the United States had any position on the recent incident: “Almost every week we see incidents of various kinds, between fishing vessels … between scientific vessels…prospecting ships…and the like” he said. “Our general policy remains the same.” The local media described such a response, taking the incidents into account, as “striking”. State Department spokesman Mark Toner also said at a press conference in Washington when asked about the Vietnamese drills that the U.S. believes in a “collaborative, diplomatic process,” and “Shows of force, other gestures like that just, I think, raise tensions”, according to the Department’s website.

The people in the Pentagon voice opinion with an even lower tone. Defense Secretary Robert Gates expressed his “fear” at the IISS Asia Security Summit that more clashes will occur in the South China Sea if nations vying for oil and gas in the waters fail to agree on code of conduct to avoid confrontations. Admiral Robert Willard, Commander of PaCom, used the similar phrasing in discussing Vietnam’s gripes with China: the “United States doesn’t take sides in a dispute,” Willard said. ”It’s strongly committed to see that the sides within the dispute handle them peacefully and through dialogue and not in confrontation at sea or in the air.”

The contending voices show wavers of the US meddling in the disputes. Beset by the public debts, defense budget cut and a somewhat overstretched military, the White House might be in strains of resources dealing with the South China Sea spats, and China’s weight is another accountable factor. Hu Jintao’s latest US visit has just stabilized the thorny 2010 US-China relations. An overload re-takeoff could not bear a new damage considering the impact of US tempt on addressing the South China Sea issue a year ago. On the other hand, the vociferous calling by Vietnam and the Philippines for intervention becomes a wake up call for Beijing, refreshing the US jumping into another maritime dispute on Japan’s side last year by declaring the Diaoyutai/Senkakus were covered by the US-Japan security treaty.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman on June 14 told the countries “not related to the disputes” hands-off the South China Sea issues. The Liberation Army Daily, mouthpiece of the Chinese military, reiterated the warning that other “unrelated” countries should back off, adding the military’s weight to that message. In an earlier press conference, the spokesman told in a rare manner that a Chinese fishing boat in a latest confrontation were dragged by a Vietnamese vessel more than one hour, with the latter's tail facing the front, rebuking the Vietnamese Pointing finger.

On June 17, the state media reported China staged three days of military exercises in the South China Sea and planned to boost its offshore maritime patrol force in the next five years. The drills, many observers deem as counteract measures, involved a total of 14 Navy patrol boats, landing craft and submarine hunting boats, along with two military aircraft. The Chinese People’s Daily said it were aimed at refining antisubmarine, replenishment, beach landing and island defense capabilities in order to better respond to any future sudden crisis. The report of the exercises follows the dispatch on June 15 of China’s largest maritime patrol ship on a first-ever visit to Singapore, a voyage in which it will transit the South China Sea. The Haixun-31 of China Maritime Safety Administration, was due to stay in Singapore for two weeks of exchanges on search and rescue, antipiracy and port management operations. In addition, the China Maritime Surveillance Forces, meanwhile, will be bolstered from the current staff of 9,000 to 15,000 personnel by 2020, the official China Daily reported. The force falls under the State Oceanic Administration, an agency that supervises China’s coastline and territorial waters. The patrol fleet will have 350 vessels by 2015 and 520 by 2020, the report said. It will also have 16 planes by 2015.

The cooling rhetorics come in the end from another South China Sea claimant. Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak said in a recent speech, “It would be a mistake for us to see China as an adversary,” he added, “If we treat China in a very constructive, positive way, I’m more than convinced that the Chinese will respond positively to us.” Whether this remark could be an antidote to the latest South China Sea disputes and to the US remains to be a question mark.